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And then the portfolio flows are often characterized as hot money. The hot money flowing in and flowing out can have exchange rate effects and asset price effects.

But let me just hit the highlights here. So one place to begin with the United States is to recognize that the United States is a net importer of capital.

We, every year, borrow from foreign countries to a large magnitude—often in excess of three percent of GDP, sometimes up to five or six percent of GDP.

When you worry about capital flows, you often hear stories about offshoring and those types of effects. Now it turns out that that flow of inward capital is exactly equal and offsetting our trade deficit.

What the trade deficit is telling you is that the country is borrowing on net from abroad and that borrowing is basically, you know, the IOUs that come from that trade deficit.

So all the countries in the world that borrow run net trade deficits and all the countries in the world that net lend run trade surpluses.

So the question is, is that good for the United States? And the counterfactual really matters here. From the United States perspective, I think this borrowing has on net been beneficial.

Those would be the things that would stop the foreign borrowing—not beating up on trading partners. So if I were an emerging economy, I would be much more interested in attracting foreign direct investment than foreign portfolio investment because foreign direct investment, where a company comes and sets up shop or merges with one of your local companies to do something in your economy, that tends to be a much more stable source of capital.

It brings a lot of advantages including foreign technology and expertise into your economy—particularly in the non-extractive sectors.

Extractive sectors come with their own challenges. Foreign portfolio capital can be a nice source of capital too, but it often is subject to rapid reversals that can cause big macroeconomic stability problems.

And so, I think emerging economies might be a little less welcoming of that type or at least think about some of the institutional and macroeconomic factors that would reduce the ability of that type of capital to be disruptive.

So I think the issues from emerging economy perspectives are somewhat different. DOLLAR: If we come back to the United States, without being an expert, my casual impression is that our tax code still favors our companies investing overseas.

The tax reform a few years ago was supposed to address this—perhaps it did partially. But I guess more generally, what would you do with the corporate tax code?

So what would you do with the corporate tax including issues of outsourcing? I think the U. So, prior to that tax act, you could sort of accumulate income offshore in a tax haven jurisdiction, for instance, paying a very low tax rate and never have to pay tax at home unless you repatriated the income.

That provided this huge incentive to book income offshore. After the tax legislation, we actually have a sort of direct exemption of foreign income from taxation in the United States for the first 10 percent return on assets.

This is one area where I think it would be quite helpful to have both better U. You could do this even unilaterally with a stronger minimum tax. The United States has been a somewhat reluctant and at times even hostile participant of that process.

But I think, hopefully, some future administration not too long from now would be more welcoming to the idea of cooperation in this area, because I think even a little bit of international cooperation can go a long way to sort of reversing this race to the bottom.

But this is not inevitable. For instance, even if the U. It kind of changes the dynamic towards a race to the top instead of a race to the bottom, but it does require a little bit of political will.

One thing I can imagine that would be really useful to do in the years ahead would be to pursue kind of a modern version of some of these big trade agreements.

So if you imagine sort of reinvigorating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership around goals like tax competition and climate change, but also keeping the trade part, giving market access to the two economies — the EU and the U.

Maybe focus less on the corporate interests around intellectual property and investor state dispute settlement and all that and more around worker and citizen interests in areas like climate change and tax competition.

And that kind of agreement could really make globalization work for citizens. Not just for the companies, not just for the winners, but for the economy as a whole, because it would kind of pair together these important collective action problems and help governments make progress on all of them together.

So I think that could be a great start to a better outcome. It need not be just to the benefit of the rich countries that I imagine partaking in this.

So that might be one way to start on some of these goals. But first, I do want to cover immigration. This is particularly true in the era of globalisation and will become even more so in the future.

I have already mentioned the fact that free trade has already allowed us to take 1 billion of our fellow human beings out of abject poverty.

But trade is not an end in itself. It is a means to spread prosperity. That prosperity underpins social cohesion. That social cohesion in turn underpins political stability, and that political stability is the building block of our collective security.

It is a continuum that cannot be interrupted without consequence. If prosperity is denied to those who aspire to it — and free trade is a key enabler of this — we should not be surprised if the result is further mass migration across the globe or indeed political radicalisation.

There are many arguments in the worlds of politics and economics that will never be settled — just as well for the politicians and journalists here today - and are as much a matter of interpretation as they are objective data.

But the effect of protectionism is as close to settled science as anything in economics will ever be: it means reduced productivity gains and lost economic growth.

And worse, in a world of globalisation where interdependency is increasing and where disruptions in one part of the world can quickly ricochet around the rest, our ability to act unilaterally with impunity is diminishing by the day.

The financial crisis was just the latest example of how economic earthquake in one part of the globe can soon be the financial tsunami for the rest.

We, today, are at an important juncture in the history of free and open trade, and of the established international order.

In many ways, the picture is actually a positive one. After several years of relative stagnation, the growth in global trade is once again outpacing the rise in global GDP with trade predicted to grow by 4.

The global economy continues to rebound from the dark days of the financial crash and ensuing recession experienced by many large economies.

Yet it is also a reflection of how globalisation and new technology continue to facilitate trade, and the irrepressible growth of the digital and knowledge economies — sectors which hardly existed even two decades ago.

And this is perhaps the root of our current paradox which is this: we have seen the benefits of free trade at home and abroad.

We are seeing a rise in living standards and a reduction in global poverty. We are witnessing our innovative industries achieve global dominance.

Who, 20 years ago, could ever have imagined the global impact of Google, of Facebook or of Amazon? Who would have believed how cheaply we could access the newest electronic gadgets from mobile phones with more computer capacity than the Apollo programme, or the latest high definition TVs at seemingly evermore affordable prices?

Perhaps at least part of the explanation lies in the rate of change and reorientation of our economies and the fear of actual and potential displacement felt by many workforces.

In Britain we have seen industries like coal mining all but disappear, but new service industries and modern manufacturing take their place, including the growth of renewable energy.

In areas such as steel production we have seen new technologies enable us to produce the same output with far fewer employees. It is, and will be, new technology that will be the major disruptive force in our economies.

We will best serve both our economies and our workforce not by turning our back on free trade, but by ensuring that we can provide mitigation for those who bear the brunt of change by providing the necessary economic support, especially in re-skilling, retraining and education.

Change is coming and we must embrace it — for our global competitors certainly will — but we must also be willing to reach out that helping hand to the men and women in our countries who will most feel the winds of change and use our skills, our experience and our knowledge to maximise the benefits for the generations to come.

We can bring prosperity and revival to some of our challenged industrial communities as they transition to new patterns of work as they have always done.

From the agricultural age to the industrial revolution, to the rise of the knowledge economy, change is forever with us.

Rather than seeking to avoid the realities of the globalised economy, we should ensure that its rising tide lifts all boats.

To do so, we require a set of global rules that are transparent, robust and enforceable and institutions that are credible and accountable.

Despite its flaws, trade specialisation and innovation, largely as a result of globalisation, has spawned a productivity revolution through increased competition, economies of scale and global value chains.

When this is combined with the effect of liberal values of meritocracy, democracy and the rule of law, it can create a tidal wave of innovation and creativity.

From the founding in the aftermath of the Secord World War of the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade, the WTO emerged as the home of the rules-based international trading system, and the repository of those free trading values that have underpinned global growth and facilitated more formal trading agreements.

It is worth remembering that these rules, and the WTO itself, are not an external imposition on our economies, but were largely shaped and codified by the work of successive US and British governments.

In it was the US, under President Reagan, that launched the Uruguay Round of multilateral negotiations that led to the establishment of the World Trade Organization.

After all, the global economy is now driven by advances in technology that were embryonic in Who could have foreseen, for example, the rise of the digital economy?

Or how knowledge and data have become so valuable? Or the blurring between goods and services? Just imagine the concept of selling a digital code on the internet to build something on a 3D printer.

More than 1. Learn more about the issues they face to produce some of the products we use every day, from coffee and cocoa to bananas and tea.

You can benefit farmers and change lives by choosing Fairtrade certified products.

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More than 1. Learn more about the issues they face to produce some of the products we use every day, from coffee and cocoa to bananas and tea.

You can benefit farmers and change lives by choosing Fairtrade certified products. The profits are invested in education and environmental programs.

Coffee is its main cash crop. Mostly, however, it is the price we pay to get the things we want. Our real objective is not just jobs but productive jobs--jobs that will mean more goods and services to consume.

Another fallacy seldom contradicted is that exports are good, imports bad. The truth is very different. We cannot eat, wear, or enjoy the goods we send abroad.

Our gain from foreign trade is what we import. Exports are the price we pay to get imports. As Adam Smith saw so clearly, the citizens of a nation benefit from getting as large a volume of imports as possible in return for its exports or, equivalently, from exporting as little as possible to pay for its imports.

The misleading terminology we use reflects these erroneous ideas. A "favorable balance of trade" really means exporting more than we import, sending abroad goods of greater total value than the goods we get from abroad.

In your private household, you would surely prefer to pay less for more rather than the other way around, yet that would be termed an "unfavorable balance of payments" in foreign trade.

The argument in favor of tariffs that has the greatest emotional appeal to the public at large is the alleged need to protect the high standard of living of American workers from the "unfair" competition of workers in Japan or Korea or Hong Kong who are willing to work for a much lower wage.

What is wrong with this argument? Don't we want to protect the high standard of living of our people? The fallacy in this argument is the loose use of the terms "high" wage and "low" wage.

What do high and low wages mean? American workers are paid in dollars; Japanese workers are paid in yen. How do we compare wages in dollars with wages in yen?

How many yen equal a dollar? What determines the exchange rate? Consider an extreme case. Suppose that, to begin with, yen equal a dollar.

At this exchange rate, the actual rate of exchange for many years, suppose that the Japanese can produce and sell everything for fewer dollars than we can in the United States--TV sets, automobiles, steel, and even soybeans, wheat, milk, and ice cream.

If we had free international trade, we would try to buy all our goods from Japan. This would seem to be the extreme horror story of the kind depicted by the defenders of tariffs--we would be flooded with Japanese goods and could sell them nothing.

Before throwing up your hands in horror, carry the analysis one step further. How would we pay the Japanese? We would offer them dollar bills. What would they do with the dollar bills?

We have assumed that at yen to the dollar everything is cheaper in Japan, so there is nothing in the U. If the Japanese exporters were willing to burn or bury the dollar bills, that would be wonderful for us.

We would get all kinds of goods for green pieces of paper that we can produce in great abundance and very cheaply. We would have the most marvelous export industry conceivable.

Of course, the Japanese would not in fact sell us useful goods in order to get useless pieces of paper to bury or burn. Like us, they want to get something real in return for their work.

If all goods were cheaper in Japan than in the United States at yen to the dollar, the exporters would try to get rid of their dollars, would try to sell them for yen to the dollar in order to buy the cheaper Japanese goods.

But who would be willing to buy the dollars? What is true for the Japanese exporter is true for everyone in Japan. No one will be willing to give yen in exchange for one dollar if yen will buy more of everything in Japan than one dollar will buy in the United States.

The exporters, on discovering that no one will buy their dollars at yen, will offer to take fewer yen for a dollar.

The price of the dollar in terms of the yen will go down--to yen for a dollar or yen or yen. Put the other way around, it will take more and more dollars to buy a given number of Japanese yen.

Japanese goods are priced in yen, so their price in dollars will go up. Conversely, U. The price of the dollar in terms of yen would fall, until, on the average, the dollar value of goods that the Japanese buy from the United States roughly equaled the dollar value of goods that the United States buys from Japan.

At that price everybody who wanted to buy yen for dollars would find someone who was willing to sell him yen for dollars. The actual situation is, of course, more complicated than this hypothetical example.

Many nations, and not merely the United States and Japan, are engaged in trade, and the trade often takes roundabout directions.

The Japanese may spend some of the dollars they earn in Brazil, the Brazilians in turn may spend those dollars in Germany, the Germans in the United States, and so on in endless complexity.

However, the principle is the same. People, in whatever country, want dollars primarily to buy useful items, not to hoard, and there can be no balance of payments problem so long as the price of the dollar in terms of the yen or the deutsche mark or the franc is determined in a free market by voluntary transactions.

Why then all the furor about the "weakness" of the dollar? Why the repeated foreign exchange crises? The proximate reason is because foreign exchange rates have not been determined in a free market.

Government central banks have intervened on a grand scale in order to influence the price of their currencies.

In the process they have lost vast sums of their citizens' money for the United States, close to two billion dollars from to early Even more important, they have prevented this important set of prices from performing its proper function.

They have not been able to prevent the basic underlying economic forces from ultimately having their effect on exchange rates but have been able to maintain artificial exchange rates for substantial intervals.

The effect has been to prevent gradual adjustment to the underlying forces. Small disturbances have accumulated into large ones, and ultimately there has been a major foreign exchange "crisis.

In all the voluminous literature of the past several centuries on free trade and protectionism, only three arguments have ever been advanced in favor of tariffs that even in principle may have some validity.

First is the national security argument--the argument that a thriving domestic steel industry, for example, is needed for defense. Although that argument is more often a rationalization for particular tariffs than a valid reason for them, it cannot be denied that on occasion it might justify the maintenance of otherwise uneconomical productive facilities.

To go beyond this statement of possibility and establish in a specific case that a tariff or other trade restriction is justified in order to promote national security, it would be necessary to compare the cost of achieving the specific security objective in alternative ways and establish at least a prima facie case that a tariff is the least costly way.

Such cost comparisons are seldom made in practice. The second is the "infant industry" argument advanced, for example, by Alexander Hamilton in his Report on Manufactures.

There is, it is said, a potential industry that, if once established and assisted during its growing pains, could compete on equal terms in the world market.

A temporary tariff is said to be justified in order to shelter the potential industry in its infancy and enable it to grow to maturity, when it can stand on its own feet.

Even if the industry could compete successfully once established, that does not of itself justify an initial tariff.

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